ELECTIONS IN IRAN, BULLETS, BARRELS REMAIN HUGH OBSTACLES TO REFORM IN IRAN
The popular uprising unfolding in Iran right now really is remarkable. It is the rarest of rare things-more rare than snow in Saudia Arabia, more unlikly than finding a ham sandwich at the Wailing Wall, more unusual than water-skiing in the Sahara. It is a popular uprising in a Middle Eastern oil state.
Why is this so unusual? Because in most Middle East states, power grows out of the barrel of a gun and out of a barrel of oil--and that combination is very hard to overthrow.
Oil is a key reason that democracy has had such a hard time emerging in the Middle East, except in one of the few states with no oil:Lebanon. Because once kings and dictators seize power, they can entrench themselves, not only by imprisioning their foes and killing their enemies, but also by buying off their people and using oil wealth to build hugh internal security apparatuses down or changed if enough Iranians vote as they did in 1979--in the street. That is what the regime fears the most.
There is only one precedent for an oil funded autocrat in the Middle east being toppled by a people's revolution, not by a military coup, and that was in..Iran. In 1979, the Iranian people rose up against the Shah of Iran in a Islamic Revolution spearheaded by the Ayatollah Khomeini. The shah controlled the Army, the SAVAK, secret-police and a vast network of oil-funded patronage. But at some point, enough people taking to the streets and defying his authority, and taking bullets as well, broke the shah's spell. The Islamic Revolution has learned from the shah. It has used it's oil wealth to buy off hugh swaths of the population with cheap housing, gov. jobs and subsidized food and gasoline. It's also used it's crude oil to erect a vast military force--namely the Revolutionary Guard and the Bbasij militia-to keep itself in power.
Therfore, the big question in Iran today is: Can the green revolution led by Mr. Hussein Moussavi, and backed by masses of street protesters, do the Islamic regime what Khomeini and the Iranian did to the shah's regime--break it's spell so all it's barrels and bullets become meaningless? Iran's ruling mullahs werre always ruthless. But they disguised it with a bit with faux elections. I says faux elections, because while the regime may have counted the votes accurately, it so tightned the of who could run. The choices were dark black and light black.
What happened this time is that the anger at the regime had reached such a level--because of near 20% unemployment and a rising youth population, tired of seeing it's life's options limited by the theocrats--that given a choice between dark black regime candidate and a light-black regime candidate, millions of Iranians turned out for light black: Moussavi. Moussavi surely less liberal than most of his followers. But just his lighter shade of black attracted and unleased so much pent-up frustration and hope for change among Iranians that ehe became an independant candidate and thus, his votes simply could not be counted because they were not just a vote for him, but were a referendum against the entire regime.
But now, having voted with their ballots, Iranians who want change will have to vote again with their bodies. A regime like Iran's can only be brought down, or changed--in the street. That is what the regime fears the most, so they shoot their own people to try and squealch this rioting in their streets.
If the reformers want change, they are going to have to from a new leadership, lay out their vision for Iran, and keep voting in the streets--over and over and over. Only if they keep showing up with their bodies, and by doing saying to their regime "We cannot be bought and we will not be cowed" will their ballots be made to count.
I am rooting for them and fearing for them. Any real moderation of Iran's leadership would be hugely positive effect on the Middle East. But we and the reformers must have no illusions aobut bullets and barrels they are up against~
Thomas Friedman.. NEW YORK TIMES NEWS SERVICES