Had to jump on here (I usually just lurk) to say I think everyone in the thread is being more than fair, I don't think it's gratuitously negative for the sake of it. I feel a lot the same way you guys do, I've really tried seeing the good in the past few seasons but it's just tough to find.
In terms of the newer characters (D.B., Finn, Morgan) I've felt like the writers have been trying to foist them on the audience instead of developing them, I completely agree with the commentary about that. Like I'm supposed to care about Finn because the writers have decided I should, rather than them giving me a solid reason through character development, you know? (I seriously doubt I will ever like Finn at all, I love Shue as an actress but this character is the pits for me). Like D.B.'s 'marital troubles' felt like such a cheap cop-out, dime store drama.
My gut instinct about the death in the premiere is that it will be Vartann or one of the other detectives. I FEAR it will be Ellie. Part of me thinks "No, they would never kill her off because obviously Brass has earned a better resolution with his daughter even if it's not a perfect relationship", but part of me knows how relentlessly the writers have stomped all over the beloved stories of the past. If they do kill Ellie, I think it will be another instance of them mistaking the destruction of beloved stories/characters as "drama" (Like, I will NEVER forgive them for violating the sacred ground of Frank's Diner last season. I'm almost ashamed of how ticked-off I got about that, but only almost).
I always feel like they've taken Faulkner's advice to 'Kill your darlings' way too far. Rather than thinking about practical application of that advice, they just compulsively do it because they think it's the only way to be 'hard hitting' or somesuch.
I feel a lot the same way you guys do about having extremely low expectations for this upcoming season. I admit, the main reason I watch is almost masochistic, like I tune in to see what horrific thing the writers are going to do next. I know that sounds so nasty to say, but I'm bitter over the whole Frank's Diner thing (and lots of other stuff, but mainly Frank's Diner).